نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار دانشکده موسیقی دانشگاه هنر ایران، تهران، ایران
2 عضو هئیت علمی گروه آینده پژوهی. دانشکده حکمرانی دانشگاه تهران
3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
4 کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت آموزشی، دانشگاه تهران غرب، تهران، ایران
5 دانشجوی دکتری تئاتر دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Music, beyond being a tool for entertaining humans, is an element that shapes identity, creates meaning, fosters unity, and serves as a language for expressing emotions, transmitting messages, and establishing connections. In fact, music can be considered an empowering factor, an unmatched strength, and a competitive advantage for cultures that, in a world characterized by ambiguity, uncertainty, fluctuation, and complexity, can enhance cultural impact, reduce communication costs, and manage socio-political transformations. Understanding music and its dimensions can enable governments and even non-governmental actors to better utilize its capacities. Given the broad influence and interconnection of music with other domains, many factors and drivers play a significant role in the transformations of music in Iran and the world. Many of these drivers are unpredictable in the future and contain ambiguity and uncertainty. These uncertainties confront policymakers and strategists with future scenarios. In this research, the scenario-building method was used to find the probable future scenarios of music in Iran by 1414, addressing the question: What are the possible scenarios for music in Iran? The 8-step Schwartz method was employed to identify 5 drivers and 12 strategic uncertainties, which ultimately led to 3 scenarios titled "Abu Ata," "Fusion," and "Modulation." These three scenarios represent major visions for the future of music in Iran, indicating that, in the studied horizon, music will trend toward personalization, content transformation, changes in traditional musical expertise, becoming more interactive, widespread public access, and the broad influence of music on culture, politics, and the economy.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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