نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی
نویسندگان
1 استادیار دانشکده موسیقی دانشگاه هنر ایران، تهران، ایران
2 عضو هئیت علمی گروه آینده پژوهی. دانشکده حکمرانی دانشگاه تهران
3 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد آینده‌پژوهی، دانشکده حکمرانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
4 کارشناسی ارشد مدیریت آموزشی، دانشگاه تهران غرب، تهران، ایران
5 دانشجوی دکتری تئاتر دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Music, beyond being merely a tool for human entertainment, serves as an identity-forming, meaning-creating, and cohesion-enhancing element, as well as a language for expressing emotions, conveying messages, and establishing connections. In fact, music can be considered an empowering factor, an unparalleled strength, and a competitive advantage for cultures. In a world characterized by ambiguity, uncertainty, volatility, and complexity, music can enhance cultural influence, reduce communication costs, and help manage socio-political transformations. Understanding music and its dimensions enables governments and even non-state actors to harness its potential more effectively. Given the vast scope of music’s influence and its susceptibility to other domains, numerous driving forces and factors impact musical transformations in Iran and globally. Many of these drivers remain unpredictable and are marked by ambiguity and uncertainty. These uncertainties confront policymakers and strategists with future scenarios. This study employs a mixed-method approach in scenario planning to identify plausible future scenarios for music in Iran by the horizon of 1414 (2035) in response to the central question: "What are the plausible future scenarios for music in Iran?" The eight-step Schwartz method was utilized to identify five key driving forces and twelve strategic uncertainties, ultimately leading to the formulation of three scenarios titled "Abu Ata," "Fusion," and "Modulation." These three scenarios, as comprehensive depictions of Iran's musical future, indicate that by the studied horizon, music will move toward personalization, content transformation, shifts in traditional expertise, increased interactivity, mass accessibility, and broader cultural, political, and economic influence. Furthermore, music is expected to become the vocal language of the environment over the next decade.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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